Is the predicted grades system really about to be scrapped?

Sixth-formers are heavily reliant on their teachers’ predicted A-level grades to secure university offers.

But this could become redundant if policymakers and universities decide to overhaul the system and allow school leavers to apply for university places only after they have received their A-level results.

The Office for Students (OfS), the higher education regulator, has launched a major review of the application process to examine whether a post-qualification admissions (PQA) system would be fairer.

It is not the first time that such plans have been considered, but we could finally be moving closer to significant change as a growing number of politicians and sector leaders are demanding reform.

The intervention from the watchdog comes after Universities UK (UUK) has already said it will consider in its own review whether students should be offered places after they have their grades.

And both the government and Labour have spoken out against the higher education admissions system.

In August, Angela Rayner, Labour’s shadow education secretary, pledged to scrap university offers based on predicted A-level grades as they argued the process unfairly penalises disadvantaged students.

Just a month later, education secretary Gavin Williamson said he endorsed looking at the pros and cons of a PQA system as part of a review of the application process.

Ucas ran a consultation in 2012 after similar demands were made at the time but it concluded that an introduction of PQA would disadvantage underrepresented students unless calendars were changed.

However, politicians and education unions say the proposal must be seriously considered again following a surge in unconditional offers – where applicants are offered a place on a degree course regardless of their exam grades – across the higher education sector.

But not all universities and schools will like the idea of overhauling the education calendar. Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, is concerned that A-levels would have to take place earlier in the school year, leaving students with less time to prepare for the exams.

Ucas has previously argued that poorer pupils lacking parental support could struggle under a PQA system as they would have to make decisions about degree courses at a time when schools are closed.

But now the admissions service is exploring how the offer-making timetable could be improved.

The growing support suggests that fundamental changes could be on the horizon. But just not quite yet.